Whet for MLB.

Baseball is where the sample lives.

The record

Whet scans MLB every cycle, all season. It is the sport with by far the most graded picks, and the first where segments cleared the sample floor the forward test set in advance.

Where the edge is

The most useful thing our own record says is unflattering. MLB prop overs are the single largest segment in the ledger, they are past the sample floor, and their return is negative. Prop unders, on the same engine over the same games, are the strongest segment we have.

The over penalty

So the engine penalises its own overs: an MLB prop over loses 35 points of Whet Score before it is ranked against anything else. A deliberate handicap applied to our own output because the graded record earned it, not a filter we invented and never ran.

What is priced

The moneyline, the total and player props (hits, total bases, strikeouts, RBIs, runs, hits + runs + RBIs, and the alternate lines) before first pitch and in play; the run line in play. Every pick is judged on its own chance and price.

The gates are market-quality gates.

The method

Whet does not price a baseball game from box scores. It prices the market against itself, and rejects prices that fail these tests on every cycle.

Two-way consensus

The fair line is built only from books quoting both sides of the market. A market nobody prices on both sides is skipped.

Three independent books, minimum

The best price has to be one at least three independent books agree on, within two points of implied probability. One book quoting an outlier is an error, not an edge. Fitted on 21,782 graded MLB picks.

Stale-price penalty

On player props, a quote more than 15 cents off the consensus is marked stale and scored down, not dropped. Game lines are not stale-checked.

Minimum edge

3% EV on player props, 2% on spreads, totals and moneylines. Below that the vig eats it.

Injury gate

The injury gate: props for players ruled out are removed before your board renders.

The over penalty

The 35 points above, applied to our own picks.

No park factors, no BvP, no lineup gate.

What this page used to say

This page used to describe a park-factor model, a batter-versus-pitcher filter with a 20-plate-appearance floor, a bullpen-fatigue adjustment and a gate that held props back until the lineup card posted. Those were written as product copy for code that never received the data it needed, so none of them has ever changed a pick you were shown. They are gone from this page rather than quietly left up.

What is left

What the ledger can back. If we build the lineup gate for real, it will appear here with a graded record attached to it, the same as everything else.

Common questions.