The settled ledger
The track record
Every consensus-confirmed pick is logged here once its game finishes — wins and losses, no cherry-picking. Graded against real game outcomes. This is the whole record, as it builds.
+$7,739
+10.44% ROI
at $10 flat bets · 7,410 settled · wins and losses both
the picks we actually showed — every pick the engine issued is below
The board — what users actually see
ROI per bet
+10.44%
graded forward from Aug 8
Net profit
+$7,739
at $10 flat bets
Record (W-L-P)
4,449–2,959–2
7,410 settled
Win rate
60.1%
95% CI 58.9–61.2%
The board is the rule-based subset of the full record below that users actually see — the rule was published on Aug 8 before these results were known, graded forward only, wins and losses both, never selected after the fact.
Strip every pick priced at an offshore or sweepstakes book — they sharpen our consensus, but a US bettor can't count on placing there — and the board still reads +9.21% ROI across 6,082 settled picks at a 60.4% win rate.
Split the same board by when the pick was found. 6,809 settled picks found after first pitch returned +11.34% ROI; the 601 found before it returned +0.35%. Both halves win at nearly the same rate — 60.1% against 59.8% — so the gap is in the price taken, not in which side was picked. Every board pick sits on one side or the other.
Every pick the engine issued
ROI per bet
+4.04%
95% CI +3.1–5%
Net profit
+$15,414
at $10 flat bets
Record (W-L-P)
20,092–17,914–132
38,138 settled
Win rate
52.9%
95% CI 52.4–53.3%
How to read these numbers
- The ledger grades at the best board price at scan time.
- In practice bettors capture roughly 25–35% of a stated edge — prices move within minutes of surfacing.
- Stated EV has realized at about two-fifths of its face value
- across every pick the engine has issued since the model froze on July 14 — measured at 42.5% of face on 2026-08-28. On the board itself, the subset users actually see, realized ROI has run at or ahead of stated edge over the same window: prop unders — most of what the board serves — realize at or above face, and the shortfall concentrates in overs and game markets. We show this because a record you can't question isn't a record.
- Line shopping is most of the battle.
- The same graded picks priced at the median board quote give back 7–14 points of ROI. One book costs most of the edge.
Every dollar figure on this page is a $10-flat accounting of the ledger — a dated record, not a projection of anyone's results. Past results are not predictions.
Running profit — every pick+$15,414
$10 flat bets · settle order
Sep 13
Prop+4.15%52%(28,686)
Spread+2.15%56.4%(4,768)
Total+6.39%53.4%(3,916)
Moneyline−0.12%61.6%(768)
| Pick | Book | Odds | Result | P/L at $10 flat bets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13104–96+$107.30 | ||||
Guadalajara Moneyline BetOnline · -180 | Win | +$5.60 | ||
Under 51.5 Total Caesars · -110 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Over 74.5 Total Hard Rock Bet (Florida) · -120 | Win | +$8.30 | ||
Over 49.5 Total BetMGM · -112 | Win | +$8.90 | ||
Chicago Bears -21.5 Spread Hard Rock Bet (Ohio) · -220 | Win | +$4.50 | ||
Chicago Bears -4.5 Spread Fliff · +100 | Win | +$10.00 | ||
Chicago Bears -1.5 Spread BetMGM · -108 | Win | +$9.30 | ||
Carolina Panthers +14.5 Spread Fliff · -155 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Chicago Bears Moneyline Bally Bet · -132 | Win | +$7.60 | ||
Xavier Legette receptions over 1.5 ESPN BET · +110 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Tommy Tremble receptions under 2.5 Hard Rock Bet (Florida) · +170 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Tommy Tremble receptions under 1.5 Bovada · -125 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Tommy Tremble receptions over 3.5 DraftKings · +140 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Tetairoa Mcmillan receptions under 3.5 betPARX · +132 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Tetairoa Mcmillan receptions under 2.5 DraftKings · +120 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Tetairoa Mcmillan receptions over 4.5 DraftKings · +125 | Win | +$12.50 | ||
Rome Odunze receptions under 3.5 Fliff · +100 | Win | +$10.00 | ||
Luther Burden III receptions under 5.5 Hard Rock Bet (Florida) · -120 | Win | +$8.30 | ||
Luther Burden III receptions under 4.5 Bovada · +140 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Luther Burden III receptions over 5.5 DraftKings · -105 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Luther Burden III receptions over 4.5 betPARX · +112 | Win | +$11.20 | ||
Kyle Monangai Rush Attempts over 7.5 Hard Rock Bet (Florida) · +120 | Win | +$12.00 | ||
Jonathon Brooks Rush Attempts over 7.5 DraftKings · +110 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Jonathon Brooks Rush Attempts over 5.5 Bovada · +135 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Jonathon Brooks Recv Yards under 48.5 DraftKings · -120 | Win | +$8.30 | ||
Jonathon Brooks receptions under 1.5 DraftKings · +155 | Win | +$15.50 | ||
Jonathon Brooks receptions over 1.5 ESPN BET · +130 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Jalen Coker receptions under 4.5 Hard Rock Bet (Florida) · +100 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Jalen Coker receptions over 7.5 betPARX · +118 | Win | +$11.80 | ||
Jalen Coker receptions over 6.5 betPARX · +123 | Win | +$12.30 | ||
Darren Waller receptions under 1.5 DraftKings · +170 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Darren Waller receptions over 1.5 Hard Rock Bet (Florida) · +120 | Win | +$12.00 | ||
D'Andre Swift Recv Yards under 10.5 BetRivers · -175 | Win | +$5.70 | ||
D'Andre Swift Recv Yards over 10.5 Bovada · +155 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
D'Andre Swift receptions over 1.5 Hard Rock Bet (Florida) · -145 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Colston Loveland receptions under 4.5 Bovada · +100 | Win | +$10.00 | ||
Colston Loveland receptions under 3.5 DraftKings · +125 | Win | +$12.50 | ||
Colston Loveland receptions under 2.5 Bovada · +130 | Win | +$13.00 | ||
Colston Loveland receptions under 1.5 DraftKings · +130 | Win | +$13.00 | ||
Colston Loveland receptions over 4.5 DraftKings · +125 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Colston Loveland receptions over 2.5 Hard Rock Bet (Florida) · +135 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Colston Loveland receptions over 1.5 Bovada · -120 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Cole Kmet receptions under 1.5 Hard Rock Bet (Florida) · +165 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Cole Kmet receptions over 1.5 DraftKings · +110 | Win | +$11.00 | ||
Chuba Hubbard Rush Attempts under 11.5 Bovada · -105 | Win | +$9.50 | ||
Chuba Hubbard Recv Yards over 9.5 DraftKings · +150 | Win | +$15.00 | ||
Chuba Hubbard receptions under 2.5 DraftKings · +150 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Chuba Hubbard receptions over 3.5 Fliff · +115 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Chuba Hubbard receptions over 2.5 betPARX · -175 | Win | +$5.70 | ||
Caleb Williams Rush Attempts over 3.5 DraftKings · -120 | Win | +$8.30 | ||
Caleb Williams Pass TDs under 1.5 DraftKings · +190 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Caleb Williams Pass TDs over 1.5 BetMGM · +100 | Win | +$10.00 | ||
Caleb Williams Pass Completions over 20.5 BetOnline · +102 | Win | +$10.20 | ||
Bryce Young Rush Yards under 10.5 DraftKings · -110 | Win | +$9.10 | ||
Bryce Young Rush Yards under 7.5 FanDuel · -112 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Bryce Young Rush Yards over 10.5 betPARX · +123 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Bryce Young Rush Attempts over 2.5 Bovada · -105 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Bryce Young Pass TDs over 3.5 BetMGM · +200 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Bryce Young Pass TDs over 2.5 BetRivers · -117 | Win | +$8.50 | ||
Over 4.5 Total Bovada · +163 | Win | +$16.30 | ||
Under 62.5 Total Hard Rock Bet (Ohio) · +125 | Win | +$12.50 | ||
Under 60.5 Total Caesars · -139 | Win | +$7.20 | ||
Over 59.5 Total Bally Bet · -143 | Win | +$7.00 | ||
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5 Spread DraftKings · +120 | Win | +$12.00 | ||
Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 Spread DraftKings · -113 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Cincinnati Bengals Moneyline ESPN BET · -175 | Win | +$5.70 | ||
Tez Johnson receptions under 0.5 DraftKings · +155 | Win | +$15.50 | ||
Tee Higgins Recv Yards over 41.5 DraftKings · +150 | Win | +$15.00 | ||
Tee Higgins receptions under 4.5 FanDuel · +104 | Win | +$10.40 | ||
Tee Higgins receptions over 4.5 Bovada · +110 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Ted Hurst III Recv Yards over 0.5 Hard Rock Bet · +175 | Win | +$17.50 | ||
Samaje Perine receptions over 2.5 Hard Rock Bet (Florida) · +140 | Win | +$14.00 | ||
Mike Gesicki receptions under 2.5 DraftKings · -115 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Mike Gesicki receptions over 5.5 betPARX · +148 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Mike Gesicki receptions over 4.5 betPARX · +106 | Win | +$10.60 | ||
Mike Gesicki receptions over 2.5 Hard Rock Bet (Florida) · +180 | Win | +$18.00 | ||
Kenny Gainwell receptions under 3.5 DraftKings · +100 | Win | +$10.00 | ||
Kenny Gainwell receptions over 2.5 Fliff · -130 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Joe Burrow Pass TDs under 2.5 Fanatics · -115 | Win | +$8.70 | ||
Joe Burrow Pass TDs under 1.5 ESPN BET · +130 | Win | +$13.00 | ||
Joe Burrow Pass TDs over 1.5 betPARX · -125 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Joe Burrow Pass Completions over 22.5 Hard Rock Bet (Florida) · +105 | Win | +$10.50 | ||
Jamarr Chase receptions under 4.5 DraftKings · +130 | Win | +$13.00 | ||
Jamarr Chase receptions under 3.5 Bovada · +140 | Win | +$14.00 | ||
Jamarr Chase receptions over 5.5 DraftKings · +115 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Emeka Egbuka receptions under 7.5 Hard Rock Bet (Florida) · -120 | Win | +$8.30 | ||
Emeka Egbuka receptions over 6.5 betPARX · +112 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Chris Godwin receptions under 5.5 ESPN BET · +120 | Win | +$12.00 | ||
Chris Godwin receptions under 4.5 DraftKings · +100 | Win | +$10.00 | ||
Chris Godwin receptions over 4.5 Bovada · +120 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Chase Brown receptions under 3.5 Hard Rock Bet (Florida) · +120 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Chase Brown receptions over 3.5 ESPN BET · +130 | Win | +$13.00 | ||
Chase Brown receptions over 2.5 Hard Rock Bet (Florida) · -135 | Win | +$7.40 | ||
Cade Otton receptions under 3.5 Bovada · +135 | Win | +$13.50 | ||
Cade Otton receptions over 3.5 betPARX · +135 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Bucky Irving Rush Attempts over 8.5 Hard Rock Bet (Florida) · +105 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Bucky Irving receptions under 7.5 Hard Rock Bet (Florida) · +130 | Win | +$13.00 | ||
Bucky Irving receptions under 5.5 DraftKings · +170 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Baker Mayfield Pass TDs under 1.5 BetOnline · -119 | Win | +$8.40 | ||
Baker Mayfield Pass TDs over 1.5 Hard Rock Bet (Florida) · +140 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Baker Mayfield Pass TDs over 0.5 ESPN BET · -140 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Baker Mayfield interceptions over 0.5 betPARX · +125 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Andrei Iosivas receptions under 1.5 ESPN BET · +100 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Andrei Iosivas receptions over 2.5 DraftKings · +180 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Draw Moneyline BetMGM · -225 | Win | +$4.40 | ||
Over 3.5 Total Fliff · +130 | Win | +$13.00 | ||
Under 45.0 Total BetRivers · -115 | Win | +$8.70 | ||
Under 44.5 Total Bovada · -130 | Win | +$7.70 | ||
Under 43.5 Total Hard Rock Bet (Florida) · +135 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Under 37.5 Total DraftKings · -119 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Over 39.5 Total BetRivers · +195 | Win | +$19.50 | ||
Cleveland Browns +30.5 Spread Hard Rock Bet (Ohio) · +145 | Win | +$14.50 | ||
Jacksonville Jaguars -29.5 Spread ESPN BET · -115 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Jacksonville Jaguars -30.5 Spread Bally Bet · -136 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Trevor Lawrence Pass TDs under 3.5 Hard Rock Bet · +120 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Trevor Lawrence Pass TDs over 3.5 betPARX · -127 | Win | +$7.90 | ||
Trevor Lawrence interceptions over 0.5 DraftKings · +190 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Quinshon Judkins Recv Yards over 10.5 betPARX · +123 | Win | +$12.30 | ||
Quinshon Judkins receptions under 1.5 Bovada · +110 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Quinshon Judkins receptions over 2.5 Hard Rock Bet (Florida) · +115 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Quinshon Judkins receptions over 1.5 Hard Rock Bet (Florida) · +100 | Win | +$10.00 | ||
Parker Washington receptions under 4.5 Hard Rock Bet (Florida) · +110 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Parker Washington receptions over 6.5 Fliff · +115 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Kc Concepcion receptions under 3.5 Bovada · +130 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Kc Concepcion receptions over 4.5 Bovada · +105 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Kc Concepcion receptions over 3.5 FanDuel · +102 | Win | +$10.20 | ||
Jerry Jeudy receptions over 2.5 Fliff · +105 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Jakobi Meyers Recv Yards under 40.5 Bovada · -130 | Win | +$7.70 | ||
Jakobi Meyers receptions over 3.5 Hard Rock Bet (Florida) · +125 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Jakobi Meyers receptions over 2.5 DraftKings · +105 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Deshaun Watson Rush Yards under 10.5 FanDuel · -108 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Deshaun Watson Rush Yards over 10.5 BetRivers · +110 | Win | +$11.00 | ||
Deshaun Watson Pass TDs under 0.5 DraftKings · +120 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Deshaun Watson Pass TDs over 0.5 betPARX · +180 | Win | +$18.00 | ||
Deshaun Watson Pass Completions over 18.5 betPARX · +105 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Deshaun Watson interceptions over 1.5 betPARX · +102 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Denzel Boston receptions over 2.5 betPARX · +138 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Denzel Boston receptions over 1.5 DraftKings · -120 | Win | +$8.30 | ||
Brian Thomas Jr. receptions under 2.5 BetOnline · +130 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Brian Thomas Jr. receptions over 2.5 betPARX · -112 | Win | +$8.90 | ||
Brenton Strange receptions under 3.5 BetMGM · -111 | Win | +$9.00 | ||
Brenton Strange receptions over 3.5 DraftKings · +120 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Bhayshul Tuten Rush Attempts over 11.5 betPARX · +104 | Win | +$10.40 | ||
Bhayshul Tuten receptions under 1.5 BetOnline · +110 | Win | +$11.00 | ||
Bhayshul Tuten receptions over 1.5 betPARX · -132 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Over 3.5 Total Bovada · +125 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Under 3.0 Total BetOnline · +120 | Win | +$12.00 | ||
Over 1.5 Total Bovada · +163 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Manchester City Moneyline Bovada · -305 | Win | +$3.30 | ||
Over 3.5 Total betPARX · +102 | Win | +$10.20 | ||
Benfica Moneyline BetMGM · -235 | Win | +$4.30 | ||
Over 5.5 Total Bally Bet · +120 | Win | +$12.00 | ||
Baltimore Orioles +1.5 Spread Fanatics · -160 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Baltimore Orioles +3.5 Spread Caesars · -167 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 Spread BetMGM · -190 | Win | +$5.30 | ||
Toronto Blue Jays -2.5 Spread Caesars · +140 | Win | +$14.00 | ||
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Total Bases under 1.5 DraftKings · +130 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Trevor Rogers Strikeouts (Pitcher) under 4.5 DraftKings · +100 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Trevor Rogers Strikeouts (Pitcher) over 4.5 BetMGM · +125 | Win | +$12.50 | ||
Pete Alonso Total Bases under 2.5 Caesars · -213 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Pete Alonso Total Bases under 1.5 Caesars · -105 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Pete Alonso Total Bases over 1.5 Bovada · +130 | Win | +$13.00 | ||
Pete Alonso Runs Scored under 0.5 Courtside · -240 | Win | +$4.20 | ||
Pete Alonso rbis under 0.5 betPARX · -240 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Pete Alonso Hits + Runs + RBIs under 1.5 DraftKings · +125 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Pete Alonso Hits + Runs + RBIs over 1.5 DraftKings · +100 | Win | +$10.00 | ||
Myles Straw Hits + Runs + RBIs under 0.5 Bovada · +130 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Kazuma Okamoto Total Bases over 1.5 DraftKings · +200 | Win | +$20.00 | ||
Kazuma Okamoto hits under 0.5 Hard Rock Bet · +100 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Kazuma Okamoto hits over 0.5 DraftKings · -130 | Win | +$7.70 | ||
Jackson Holliday Hits + Runs + RBIs under 0.5 Bovada · -105 | Win | +$9.50 | ||
Jackson Holliday hits under 0.5 Courtside · -225 | Win | +$4.40 | ||
Gunnar Henderson hits under 0.5 Courtside · -125 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Gunnar Henderson hits over 0.5 ESPN BET · +140 | Win | +$14.00 | ||
George Springer hits under 0.5 Hard Rock Bet · +115 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
George Springer hits over 0.5 DraftKings · +115 | Win | +$11.50 | ||
Ernie Clement Runs Scored under 0.5 BetMGM · -275 | Win | +$3.60 | ||
Ernie Clement Hits + Runs + RBIs under 0.5 Caesars · +133 | Win | +$13.30 | ||
Ernie Clement hits under 0.5 BetMGM · +115 | Win | +$11.50 | ||
Ernie Clement hits over 0.5 betPARX · +130 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Dylan Cease Strikeouts (Pitcher) under 8.5 DraftKings · +100 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Dylan Cease Strikeouts (Pitcher) over 8.5 BetOnline · +128 | Win | +$12.80 | ||
Coby Mayo rbis under 0.5 BetMGM · -155 | Win | +$6.50 | ||
Christian Encarnacion-Strand Runs Scored under 0.5 BetMGM · -220 | Win | +$4.50 | ||
Christian Encarnacion-Strand hits under 0.5 ESPN BET · +130 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Charles Mcadoo hits over 1.5 DraftKings · +190 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Brett Bateman Total Bases over 1.5 betPARX · +180 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Brett Bateman hits under 0.5 Fanatics · -150 | Win | +$6.70 | ||
Brett Bateman hits over 0.5 ESPN BET · -140 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Andres Gimenez Total Bases under 2.5 Fliff · -220 | Win | +$4.50 | ||
Andres Gimenez Hits + Runs + RBIs under 2.5 Caesars · -190 | Win | +$5.30 | ||
Under 7.5 Total Fliff · +105 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Texas Rangers -2.5 Spread Fanatics · -190 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Wyatt Langford Total Bases over 1.5 betPARX · +185 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Wyatt Langford Runs Scored under 0.5 Courtside · -290 | Win | +$3.40 | ||
Wyatt Langford Runs Scored over 0.5 DraftKings · +200 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Wyatt Langford Hits + Runs + RBIs over 0.5 Bovada · +125 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Wyatt Langford hits over 0.5 DraftKings · -110 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Tim Tawa Hits + Runs + RBIs under 0.5 Bovada · +100 | Loss | −$10.00 | ||
Tim Tawa hits over 0.5 DraftKings · -115 | Win | +$8.70 | ||
Sample so far: 38006 settled picks across 1452 games over 85 dates. Same-game picks are correlated, so the ranges shown are event-clustered (wider, and honest).
MLB + NCAAF + NFL + soccer + WNBA so far.
Every consensus-confirmed pick is logged here once its game finishes — wins and losses, no cherry-picking.
Results are priced at the line we surfaced (confirmed by multiple books). A bettor with few sportsbooks may capture less.
Past results do not guarantee future outcomes.
For entertainment. 21+. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
game_date is the UTC date of first pitch; slate_date is the Eastern slate day (Eastern time minus 6 hours — a 1 AM finish belongs to the evening's slate), falling back to game_date on rows with no stored start time. Day groupings on /proof use slate_date.
Updated Sep 14.
The record is public. The feed is live.
Every number above comes from the same engine pricing the board right now — wins and losses both, graded daily.