The scoring is frozen. Now we grade it.

The scoring engine was frozen at 2026-07-14 03:00 UTC, after one final change: a gate demoting MLB player-prop overs (PR #260). A test of a moving target proves nothing, so until this test resolves, nothing in the scoring changes: no gates, no calibration, no thresholds.

One thing did change after the freeze, and it belongs on this page: on 2026-07-30 market coverage expanded: MLB prop markets went from five to nine, and in-play unders began reaching the board. The scoring engine is untouched; the same frozen math grades every pick. Because the pick mix changed, the single-mix window is 07-14 → 07-30, and the resolution grid will report both views.

The freeze is an artifact, not a promise. The frozen configuration is pinned to git commit adc979a5 (2026-07-14), a fixed point the running code can be checked against.

A record is only as honest as its denominators, so every cohort is defined here, before a single forward pick exists:

An ISSUED pick is a row whose Whet score is ≥ 50 at first scan: the customer-visible board.

A DEMOTED pick is tracked but below the floor due to a pre-registered gate.

A VOID pick was pre-registered as one published with a reason code. That cohort was never built, and this page says so rather than leave the definition standing: a pick that cannot be graded never reaches the ledger at all, and the ledger stores only win, loss and push. There is no void log and no reason code in the product today.

PRIMARY ENDPOINT: flat-stake win rate and ROI of ISSUED picks made after the freeze, with event-clustered 95% confidence intervals.

Two primary metrics: forward win rate and flat-stake ROI on picks made after the freeze, reported with event-clustered 95% confidence intervals. Picks from the same game move together, so clustering by event is what keeps the intervals honest instead of flattering.

And no claim before the sample floors are met: at least 14 independent game dates and 200 graded picks per segment. Until both floors clear, the only honest label for any forward number is “too early”, and that's the label it gets.

The full segment grid is pre-declared: sport × market type × side. Every segment that reaches its floor is reported with win rate AND ROI AND confidence interval together. Never one metric alone, never a subset of segments. Cherry-picking which slice to show, or which number to lead with, is the oldest trick in this industry; pre-declaring the grid takes the option away.

The secondary metric is closing-line value measured against Pinnacle's two-sided closing quote.

Honest limit: it was pre-registered on 2026-07-14 but had nowhere to be recorded until migration 081 landed on 2026-08-17, so it accrues from that date. The scan snapshots it needs expire after 30 days, so 2026-07-14 to 2026-07-18 cannot be recovered and never will be.

We retired our old consensus-anchored CLV because it measured our own book mix churning, not the market. A CLV number is only worth reporting against an anchor we don't control, so the forward test grades against Pinnacle's close and nothing else.

One honest limit: Pinnacle quotes only a subset of our markets, and unevenly across segments, so sharp-anchored CLV is reported with its coverage rate and is never the primary endpoint. The rate published at pre-registration was ~32% of recent props. It was 20.3% when measured on 2026-08-16, over 11,297 prop rows from the last 7 days, of which 2,295 carried a Pinnacle quote. The drop tracks the 2026-07-30 market expansion disclosed above: of the six prop markets we ran this week, Pinnacle priced two, total bases (65.1%) and pitcher strikeouts (64.9%), and none of the other four. Adding markets it does not quote lowers the rate without anything changing at Pinnacle.

The freeze's one final change was a gate demoting MLB player-prop overs. A pre-registration owes that gate a written exit condition, decided now rather than argued later. The bar is comparative. The gate's job is to separate worse picks from better ones, not to predict which side of break-even a cohort lands on:

Demoted prop overs continue to be scanned, tracked, graded, and published identically to issued picks, flagged as demoted. The revert evaluation happens exactly once, at the verdict date. The gate reverts only if the demoted-overs cohort's forward flat-stake ROI is within 2 points of (or above) the issued board's forward ROI over the same window, with ≥ 200 graded demoted overs. That is, only if the gate demonstrably failed to separate worse picks from better ones.

No judgment call, no quiet extension, no early or repeated evaluation. One check, one rule.

Every pick is locked the moment it's issued and graded when the game ends. The record is append-only: picks can be added, never edited or removed. 100% of picks that reach the ledger are graded; there is no “didn't count” pile. 99.4% of issued picks reach it. The shortfall is player-name matching, not a choice we make, and we publish the gap rather than round it away. And when the test resolves, we publish the outcome either way, pass or fail.

The running numbers publish automatically every day from day one. We have no discretion over timing. The pass/fail verdict is computed exactly once, on the earlier of 2026-10-01 or the date all pre-registered sample floors (≥ 14 independent game dates AND ≥ 200 graded picks per segment) are met, and is published either way.