How we measure the close.
How we define and compute closing-line value, edge, and book coverage — the formulas, the sources, the exclusions. No marketing math, and no performance numbers we can't stand behind.
We don't publish a headline win-rate or edge figure here. The live, dated record — wins and losses — is on /proof, and it's the only place we report actual results.
What beating the close actually means.
When you bet a line, that line keeps moving until the game starts. The price the book closes at — the closing line — is the sharpest the market gets. Sharp money has priced everything in by then.
If you bet at better than the close, you got a price the sharp side eventually agreed with. That's CLV — closing line value. Long term, beating the close is the only signal that predicts profit. ROI is noisy. Win-rate is a vanity metric. CLV is the math.
We don't put a CLV-beat percentage on this page. Measuring it honestly requires capturing the closing line on every surfaced bet, dated and settled — so the only number worth showing is the live one as it accrues, not a pre-launch estimate. That record is on /proof. What this section explains is exactly how that number is computed, so when it's there you can check it.
- Live results
- Published on /proof — no performance figure is asserted on this page
- Books included
- DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, Pinnacle (consensus)
- Closing source
- Pinnacle close (sharper market reference)
- Computation
- (bets with no-vig close ≥ bet odds) / (total bets)
- Excluded
- Voided bets, postponed events, books where close is unobservable
CLV is reported at the level — both the bet odds and the closing odds are before comparison, so the metric isn't flattered by the book's margin.
Why we don't quote ROI.
ROI is the wrong number to put on a marketing page. ROI depends on bankroll, stake sizing, parlay decisions, variance, and the slice of the season you happen to be in. Two bettors taking the exact same Whet picks can have different ROIs.
Edge — expected value as a percentage of stake — is the property of the bet itself. It doesn't move with the bettor. A +4% edge on a $100 bet has +$4.00 in expected value, by definition.
Every bet Whet surfaces ships with its own edge, computed live by the formula below. We don't average those into a single headline number on this page — edge per bet is the honest unit, and the realised, dated results are on /proof. Edge is an expectation, not a guarantee on any single bet; variance is real.
- Live results
- Published on /proof — no performance figure is asserted on this page
- Computation
- (p_true × (decimal_odds − 1)) − (1 − p_true)
- True probability source
- Weighted-consensus de-vig across 25+ books per market
- Aggregation
- Mean per bet, no stake-weighting (small bets count equally)
- Excluded
- Bets below the +3% surfacing threshold (not surfaced ⇒ not counted)
Edge is not a guarantee of profit on any single bet. Variance is real. Over a large enough sample, positive-edge bets are what CLV independently corroborates — which is why we track both, live, on /proof.
The 25+ books, the regions, the cadence.
Whet scans player-prop and game-line markets across 25+ US-licensed sportsbooks continuously — roughly every few minutes, tightening as a game approaches. The list shifts as books enter or exit markets; the integration count published on the landing is the floor, not a fixed ceiling.
- Scan cadence
- Continuous — roughly every few minutes, tightening near game time
- Regions
- US states where the books are licensed (varies by book)
- Markets
- Player props (15 stat types), spreads, totals, moneylines, parlays
- Update window
- A surfaced bet carries the de-vigged price it was flagged at, timestamped
- Excluded
- Offshore books, peer-to-peer exchanges, books without public price feeds
How to check the math.
The same CLV and edge formulas above apply to Whet's live feed: every surfaced bet ships with its edge, its closing-line target, and the de-vigged price it was flagged at — so the math is yours to check on real, dated bets rather than taken on faith.
To be clear about performance figures: we deliberately don't publish a headline win-rate or edge number on this page — only the formulas above. The live, dated, settled record (wins and losses) is on /proof, reported as it accrues. That's where verified numbers appear, and where you can check this math on real, dated bets rather than take any figure on faith.
Want to see the math live?
Every bet on Whet ships with its edge, its closing-line target, and the Kelly-sized stake. The methodology applies to the live feed, not just the snapshot.